Solana Beach triathlon predictions

Yep, my first anniversary for triathlon is coming up on the 26th.  That was the date of the 2009 Solana Beach Triathlon.  However, through the magical mysteries of calendar math (a concept I understand but am too tired to contemplate at the moment), this year the race falls on the 25th.

First off, the hotels in the Encinatis/Solana Beach/Del Mar area are expensive this weekend.  I ended up finding a Marriott for $199, but this was a fluke, because even the Days Inn was north of $200.  I have to start booking this stuff earlier, because I reckon this should have been around $89.  Ouch.

With a year under my belt, I must admit I'm approaching this race with a bit of swagger, though I know this is a mistake and I could pay dearly for this infraction against my normally balanced persona.  But even if I manage to slow the ego roll between now and Sunday, my plan is to "hold-nothing-back-and-go-all-out" for this one.

Solana Beach is a short race - 1/4 mile swim, 9 mile bike and a 3 mile run.  With the exception of a steep run up the bluff from the swim to transition, Solana is a flat and compact course.  If conditions are right (e.g. smallish surf on the swim and minimal wind on the bike course), in THEORY I can do this in under an hour.  I'll just have to string together a series of strong but previously achieved performances for each discipline.  That said, I'll probably find a way to screw this up.  My best guess is that I will finish somewhere in the 1:03-1:05 range.

 Hardest part of the course.  It's steeper than it looks...

Last year my time was 1:21.  This was slow, and I placed low.  But it didn't matter, because as I've mentioned before this was the race that got me hopelessly hooked.  On the drive home last year I may have been happy enough to (hypothetically speaking) sing along to a Michael Jackson song.  But if this (again, hypothetically speaking) happened, it would have been something cool like "Don't Stop 'til You Get Enough" from Off The Wall.

Race report Sunday...