Wednesday, May 12, 2010
Countdown To Encinitas
I've got another race this Sunday. I'll be heading down to San Diego County for the Encinitas Sprint Triathlon.
Encinitas is right on the line when it comes to deciding whether it's an overnight trip or a really early morning drive. I had been planning to opt for the early morning drive, but I got an email today saying that packet pick-up is Saturday only. I have a feeling that there is a way around this, but I don't really feel like trying to figure it out.
So I'll stay at the local Motel 6. It's cheap and cheerful. The Wi-Fi is free. And Tom will keep the light on in case I get the urge to go on a late night Gatorade bender at the local 7-11.
Speaking of 7-11, the guy who works at the one near my house told me that the Huntington Beach police department sent in 5 cruisers and a helicopter to pick up two 15 year olds who got caught stealing beer. He told me he had already "detained" them so he was surprised by the response. I guess it's one of three things - My tax money is being wasted, there is an excellent reason for this as a standard operating procedure, or the police were more worried about the counter clerk who "detained" the kids than the kids themselves. I dunno.
It's a 750M/20K/5K race. So that ends up being 820 yards, 12.4 miles, and 3.1 miles. Bear with me - it's easier for me to think in Imperial units with respect to the predictions that follow.
1. The Swim. This is a straight up honest-to-goodness ocean swim. The surf report is calling for a 3-4 foot swell. If this is true it shouldn't be a big deal. From what I understand, they call the direction of the swim at the last minute. I presume this is because of currents. And I would assume that they would pick the direction that would be most favorable for safety, i.e. swimming with the current. Thus it could be a faster swim for this slow swimmer. So I am going to go with 2:00 per 100 yards and add a minute for the inevitable beach run to the transition area. That makes the swim 17:24. Man I wish I was a faster swimmer. And speaking of T1, If I have to put special lenses in my swim goggles to be able to see the laser target designator that I'll have pointed at my bike, then I will. I do not want to run around like a jackass looking for my bike this time.
2. The Bike. The say it's flat, but Coast Highway is never pancake flat - it rolls slightly. There will probably be a slight wind from the west, but it should be more of a cross wind than anything. I'm feeling pretty good on the bike lately. And I love riding it. So, I should be able to average 21 MPH over 12.4 miles for a 35:42 time.
3. The Run. I've got sub 7:30 miles in me, and this may be the course to do it. In my last two races, where I have been creeping down from last year's 8:00 miles, I have still had gas in the tank. I want to cross empty this time. That's a 22:30/3.10 mile run segment.
Adding in a (hopefully) liberal 5 minutes for transitions, that's a 1:19:36 race.
Now the fun part. Using these predictions against against last years results, I would have come in 193rd out of 592 overall, and 21st of 49 in my AG. So that's top 32% for the overall, and top 42% for my age group. Not the 25/33% I am shooting for this year.
It's the swim for the most part. It's just too slow. I really need to work on this. But I'll tell you what, if I come out of the water earlier than I predict, I will be inspired sufficiently to find a little extra for the rest. So maybe I can make this happen.
I'll have a race report by Sunday night. I'm also bringing the video camera I used last weekend. I'm going to have some time on my hands. And I'd rather make a jackass out of myself with a video camera than in T1 looking for my bike.